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Oxf Rev Econ Policy 1997; 13:34-54
© 1997 Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Ltd


Article

The limits of business cycle research: assessing the real business cycle model

JE Hartley0
KD Hoover1
KD Salyer1

0 Mount Holyoke College
1 University of California, Davis, USA

Abstract

The real business cycle model dominates business cycle research in the new classical tradition. Typically, real business cycle modellers both offer the bold conjecture that business cycles are equilibrium phenomena driven by technology shocks and also novel strategies for assessing the success of the model. This article critically examines the real business model and the assessment strategy, surveys the literature supporting and opposing the model, and evaluates the evidence on the empirical success of the model. It argues that, on the preponderance of the evidence, the real business cycle model is refuted.


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